42.4: Primaries
Select the nominee earlier in the 2016 cycle rather than later. Other Information:
The 2015-2016 primaries will be different from 2012 because both parties will have open contests. The fact that our nominee
will not be running against an incumbent means many of the organizational advantages that the President enjoyed will no longer
be in place for the Democratic nominee. The 2016 cycle will also reflect the growing influence of candidate-specific SuperPACs.
The ability of wealthy individuals to write unlimited checks on behalf of one candidate has changed how campaigns are conducted.
It should be noted that 99 percent of the money raised by the Romney SuperPAC, Restore Our Future, was donated by individuals,
not corporations. (American Crossroads also raised 99 percent of its money from individual donors, as did the Perry SuperPAC.
The Santorum SuperPAC raised 98 percent of its money from individual donors. The Gingrich SuperPAC raised 79 percent from
individual donors.) SuperPAC money is a wild card that weakens our eventual nominee, regardless of who he or she is, due to
the onslaught of negative ads against that candidate. We also assume that whoever the nominee is in 2016 will continue the
trend begun by then-Senator Obama in 2008 of declining public financing for the presidential campaign. As a result of all
these factors, we believe it is better for the Party to have a nominee selected earlier in the 2016 cycle rather than later.
We also believe it is advantageous to move quickly into the general election phase of the campaign, allowing the nominee to
spend general election money sooner.
Indicator(s):
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