5.1.3: Environmental Modeling
An integrated environmental modeling system Other Information:
To fulfill current and emerging science and service requirements for all of NOAA's strategic goals, the agency must ultimately
evolve toward an interconnected and comprehensive Earth system modeling enterprise that links atmospheric, oceanic, terrestrial,
cryospheric, ecological, and climatic models. This evolution will advance the ability to provide forecasts that incorporate
dynamic responses from natural and human systems, and provide results at spatial and temporal scales capable of assessing
impacts on ecosystem services, economies, and communities. NOAA and other Federal Agencies support significant modeling research
and development carried out by broad external research communities across the Nation. This objective will transform these
existing environmental modeling efforts from disparate enclaves into a coordinated, scientifically robust effort that serves
as a foundation for integrated environmental analysis, forecasting, and model-based user support and services. Key benefits
of this integrated effort include enhanced service capabilities—a cornerstone of NOAA's decision support efforts—and greater
access to, ease-of-use, and reliance on NOAA's models and guidance, providing clearly articulated model confidence; continued
advancement of a national environmental prediction and assessment capability; and optimization of NOAA's investments in research,
observations, and monitoring. To achieve this objective, NOAA will develop a comprehensive modeling backbone; integrate observations,
models, products, and services; and foster a culture of collaboration within and external to NOAA. The complexity of NOAA's
modeling requirements and the challenges of transitioning research and development capabilities into operations will require
extensive coordination within NOAA and with other Federal Agencies for the optimized use of national investments, and external
collaboration with the environmental modeling community in the academic (including academic consortia) and private sectors.
To this end, NOAA will develop collaborative strategies involving internal and external partnerships and community-wide standards
to ensure interoperability; integrate research monitoring and prediction plans for its strategic goals, including regional-scale
climate models and integrated ecosystem modeling; enhance and expand existing capabilities for data integration from observing
systems for model validation and verification; and institute a well-functioning governance structure for NOAA's environmental
modeling enterprise. Over the next five years, evidence of progress toward this objective will include: * Effective and efficient
collaboration and coordination within NOAA and with partners to enhance the scope and predictive accuracy of integrated Earth
system models for global, national, and regional applications, and for specific phenomena; * Increased capacity, capability,
and use of models to support ecological forecast services; * Improved predictive performance of global, regional, and local
climate, weather, ocean, and ecosystem models for variable temporal scales; * Increased development and implementation of
integrated modeling science plans incorporating prioritization, and partnerships to accelerate the advancements of modeling
capabilities, capacities, and enterprise solutions; Increased volume and diversity of data and information effectively integrated
into models, particularly at different global, national, regional, and local scales; * Increased evaluation and optimization
of NOAA's investments in observation and monitoring through the use of models; * Acceleration of model coverage, transitioning,
and interoperability; and * Increased development and use of enterprise and community models.
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