Earth Science 1: Understand Earth Changes

Observe, understand, and model the Earth system to learn how it is changing, and the consequences for life on Earth.

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Five key science questions are at the heart of this goal: 1. How is the global Earth system changing? 2. What are the primary causes of change in the Earth system? 3. How does the Earth system respond to natural and human induced changes? 4. What are the consequences of change in the Earth system for human civilization? 5. How well can we predict future changes in the Earth system? The Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) seeks to answer these questions through data gathering and analysis. In the near term, NASA is conducting the first-ever systematic survey of practically every aspect of the Earth system. The effort relies on measurements from the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites and the series of smaller, experimental Pathfinder spacecraft. Data are collected on variables including clouds, precipitation, atmospheric temperature and humidity, chemicals in the stratosphere and troposphere, radiation, land cover and vegetation, fires, volcanoes, land and sea surface temperature, ocean surface winds, and ice and snow cover. Aircraft and other field campaigns validate and supplement the satellite data. NASA then examines the data, using large-scale computer models to discern patterns and trends among variables. Near-term results will include better inputs for weather and climate prediction, and 3-D maps of the entire inhabited surface of the Earth. In the mid-term, ESE will develop even more advanced instruments and modeling techniques. Results of better observations will include interactive models of climate change impacts, vastly better identification of how human and natural forces affect Earth, and more complete data, especially global winds and precipitation. These data will both improve climate prediction and extend weather forecasts from the current 3 to 5 days to 7 to 10 ten days. To achieve these benefits, NASA is planning the suite of Earth-observing satellites that will succeed the first EOS series described above. These include a land remote sensing capability to succeed Landsat 7 and a joint satellite with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD). This cooperative effort will provide NASA with climate research data while demonstrating advanced instruments for future joint civilian/military weather satellites. Long-term benefits of the ESE program will include 10-day weather and pollution forecasts, 5-day volcanic eruption advance warnings, 15- to 20-month El Niño forecasts, and 10-year predictions of the regional impact of climate change. To obtain the observations needed for this level of prediction, NASA envisions an intelligent network of multiple observation types and vantage points using new technologies such as tiny, inexpensive microsatellites and nanosatellites. These systems will be reconfigurable and autonomous, with overlapping measurements for calibration and validation. ESE’s technology investment strategy over the next 5 to 10 years focuses on the instrument, spacecraft, and information technologies needed to make this future possible. NEAR TERM PLANS: - Establish a benchmark for global rainfall - Estimate uptake of atmospheric CO2 from global measurements of the terrestrial biosphere - Provide precise global measurements of atmospheric temperature and humidity - Make global measurements of cloud properties to determine Earth’s response to solar radiation - Measure global ocean winds and topography to improve accuracy and length of weather prediction and drive models of ocean impacts on climate change - Produce 3-D maps of the entire inhabited surface of the Earth

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