2.2: Homelessness and Predictive Analytics

Empower Communities to Combat Homelessness Utilizing Predictive Analytics

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Since 2001, HUD has worked with communities to implement and use local Homeless Management Information Systems (HMIS) to collect client-level data to discover the number and characteristics of homeless persons. Today, nearly every city and county in America operates HMIS. HUD reports national and local data on homelessness to Congress and the public through the Annual Homelessness Assessment Report (AHAR). Given the critical need for timely information in the current economic downturn, HUD is expanding the use of the HMIS System so it can serve as a platform to help communities more effectively confront homelessness. The recent passage of the HEARTH Act of 2009 aligns with this effort by consolidating and simplifying HUD's various homelessness resources. The information from the HMIS helps determine whether homelessness is increasing or decreasing and what sub-populations are most affected. As a result of these efforts, community leaders and the public will know more about the nature and size of the challenge and be better able to target limited resources to maximize effectiveness. Under new programs such as the Homelessness Prevention and Rapid Re-Housing Program (HPRP), funded through the Recovery Act in 2009, communities will have resources to create meaningful local projects aimed at preventing homelessness and rapidly re-housing those who are currently experiencing it. These programs align with HUD's strategic initiative of “Ending Homelessness by Preventing It.” Moreover, through HUD's Homelessness Resource Exchange (HRE) web site , field research, on-line surveys, and townhall meetings, HUD will seek input from community stakeholders and the public about how best to reduce and ultimately eliminate homelessness. Information received through these efforts will be used to identify best practices and outcomes of HPRP, and to assess the impact of other homelessness programs. HUD will make this data publically available, and it will engage its stakeholders in identifying its most useful attributes. Building on all of these efforts, HUD will assume a proactive leadership role in the Administration's efforts to combat homelessness by endeavoring to develop a new and innovative set of tools and processes. The Department's effort is unique because it will seek to predict the future course of homelessness in a community, and it will allow HUD to proactively allocate homelessness resources. Similar to how the Department of the Interior tries to predict where wildfires will occur using relevant data on precipitation, wind, and temperature, HUD and its partners will try to predict which geographic areas are at risk of heightened levels of homelessness HUD believes that research is needed to determine how combining information from multiple agencies could lead to the development of a predictive model that could help communities avert homelessness before it happens. The first phase of this effort is to collect data that could be used in a predictive model, and the second phase is to develop an interactive model and make it available to the public. As part of this research effort, HUD will proactively explore partnerships with relevant non-profits, the US Census Bureau, Health and Human Services, the Departments of Labor, Commerce, and Defense, the Veterans Administration, and other agencies or groups to identify collaborative ways in which each organization can contribute to the fight against homelessness. Cooperation with financial regulatory agencies and other entities gathering relevant economic data may also provide HUD with valuable leading indicators of potential increases in homelessness. This cooperation will include data sharing agreements to identify information that can be shared among these groups to provide the best predictive capability in identifying areas for rapid increases in homelessness. This proactive tool will not only address homelessness, but also yield substantial cost savings. The costs of sheltering families in transitional housing are substantially greater than those associated with programs such as the HPRP. Predicting when and where homelessness will strike will allow HUD and its local partners to use more affordable and sustainable long-term programs instead of short-term, expensive, and patchwork solutions.

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